Alright, Sam Hinke won’t be making a public prediction of the 2016 presidential winner, but analytics and algorithms will be sure to take a crack at it. That is after they’re done predicting who will win the NCAA Tournament
This article from PC World discusses Microsoft Bing’s Bracket Builder. It is a mathematical model of March Madness that assesses future games depending on your prediction of the winner of games. Like most of these online brackets, reasons as to why one team will beat another are given, but what makes Bing’s system that much more advanced is the fact that it will predict future games using your own predictions as absolutes.
Like Sam Hinke, and as we are learning too, Chip Kelly, subscribes to the thinking that emotional attachments should not be a precursor to building something successful. Well, that is in-line with why the folks at Microsoft decided to build the Bracket Builder.
“At the end of the day, our job is to remove a little bit of the emotion from the bracket-building experience, and operate more from a place of logic, so you’re going to end up with a smarter, winning bracket,”
Bryan Saftler, the senior marketing manager in charge of the Bing Bracket Builder believes that when people are exposed to the why’s and the how’s of Bracket Builders ability at predicting the outcomes so proficiently that we will become believers in the algorithms,
“The moment that we start exposing those statistics, and show how we got there, you’re going to trust [Bing] more and find more value more understanding… We’re helping you make smarter decisions.”
Bing’s Bracket Builder is also able to take real time data into consideration when making predictions, allowing for adjustments in predicting a winner on the fly. The ability to adjust and use real time data from the many facets of the web is what makes the 2016 presidential election the next great mystery to be conquered
If Microsoft can obtain all of that social information itself—and remember, all of that aggregated polling information correctly called the 2012 elections—Microsoft might be able to make even more detailed predictions. That’s extremely valuable information to any number of people —especially if Microsoft can track results on the fly. March Madness is one thing, but it pales in comparison to what will take place in November of 2016.
Now if only we could get Chip Kelly to give us some insight into his vision we may save ourselves a bit of angst and confusion.